Next US President matters to the world

The thinking, this week at least, is that Mitt Romney might win the overall popular vote but that President Barack Obama will win the necessary 270 electoral-college votes to retain the presidency. Source: AFP

FORMER prime minister John Howard commented on his recent visit to the US that it made little difference to Australia whether a Democrat or a Republican occupied the White House, because we could work with either.

But as President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney prepare to tackle foreign policy in their third and final presidential debate, on Monday night, US time, Australians will find that the political colour of the next President matters a good deal.

On November 6, as Australians watch the Melbourne Cup, Americans will be heading to sleep and will wake up, on the same date the following day, to cast a vote in a neck-and-neck race that will have major ramifications for the world.

Were he to become the US Commander-in-Chief, Mr Romney has said that the 2014 withdrawal deadline for Afghanistan is not assured.

The Republican candidate has stated that any decision would be made at that time, and he would stay on if he felt it was needed.

Australia is committed to the 2014 Obama schedule and any requests that we stay longer would not play well domestically and put the next Australian prime minister in a difficult position.

President Obama has been reluctant to act on Syria, though Mr Romney has called for direct intervention to assist the rebels.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has made the same call and would presumably be expected to support Mr Romney if he chose to act.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during a Victory Rally at the Daytona Beach Bandshell on Friday. Picture: AFP

Mr Romney is extremely aggressive on Iran, as part of his show of unstinting support for Israel.

Chances of air strikes against Iran's nuclear program would rapidly escalate under his leadership.

President Obama has already begun his Pacific pivot and at this moment has an aircraft carrier battle group making its strongest show of force yet in the disputed South China Sea.

What Mr Romney thinks of Pacific strategic policy may be revealed, for the first time, in the foreign policy debate.

China-baiting is a popular sport in the US, though it makes Australians uncomfortable, given it is our biggest export destination.

Mr Romney claims the President is soft on China, which he says ''cheats'' by suppressing the value of its Yuan to give it an unfair advantage in the export market.

The President says one of Mr Romney's companies at Bain Capital supplies the Chinese government with surveillance equipment so it can spy on its own people.

US President Barack Obama greets supporters during a campaign rally at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, on Friday. Picture: AFP

With less than three weeks before America chooses, the name of the next President will matter to the world. So who's going to win?

The thinking, this week at least, is that Mr Romney might win the overall popular vote but that President Obama will win the necessary 270 electoral-college votes to retain the presidency.

The Democrats will win fewer states, but President Obama can count on the bigger states that proportion a larger number of electoral votes, such as California and New York.

The President is also likely dominate in big north-eastern industrial states such as Illinois and New Jersey, and is currently just ahead in the auto states of Michigan and the key battleground of Ohio, which would assure him the presidency if he can retain it.

Mr Romney appears to have Florida and Virginia, two other key southern swing states and but needs to do better in the north.

Democrats got a bad scare when their leader performed badly in the first debate, and Mr Romney charged ahead in the polls.

But now the situation seems to have settled after the President's second debate.

A young girl reaches out to shake the hand of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney during a Victory Rally at the Daytona Beach Bandshell on Friday. Picture: AFP

We are set for a very close race.

Americans want economic fixes and it remains to be seen how interested they will be in the foreign policy debate.

But it is not without meaning: Americans from both sides of politics are tired of fighting and believe the lives of their sons and daughters are wasted on an ungrateful Afghanistan.

Mr Romney needs to make sure he does not talk too blithely about new conflicts.

Americans, and their allies, will not like it.

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